Manchester Vermont Real Estate Blog

It is a snowy Wednesday in Vermont. The kids are home from school. The fire is roaring. The driveway hasn’t been plowed and I am working from home. It’s a perfect time to get back to my Manchester Vermont Real Estate Blog to reflect on and review the year that just ended.

By many accounts 2010 may have been the worst year in real estate that anyone can remember. It certainly felt that way back in July and August when days would go by without the phone ringing and buyers seemed to have disappeared completely. Fortunately, when the leaves started turning so did the activity level for the better and the market finished on a definite up note, providing optimism for the year to come.

The statistics on the local market for 2010 indicate that the year was on par with the previous two years in terms of number of transactions and that prices made a meaningful recovery over 2009, when they appear to have bottomed out.

For the ten towns covered in this blog (Manchester, Dorset, Arlington, Sunderland, Winhall, Peru, Londonderry, Rupert, Pawlet, and Danby) there were a total of 198 homes and condos sold during 2010. This was up 4.2% over the 190 properties sold in 2009 and down slightly from the 199 sold in 2008. So essentially the transaction volume has been flat for the past 3 years and is still off 47% from the boom in market activity from 2002 – 2005.

The median sale price in 2010 was $275,000. This was up 19% over the median price for 2009 which was $231,250. Interestingly these numbers compare very closely to the 2003 – 2004 time period when the median sale prices were $231,750 and $285,000. Looking at the average sale prices for 2009 and 2010 we see a similar increase of 22%, going from $326,120 to $398,531.

For those readers who think the 10 towns covered by this data are too diverse to be lumped together I have broken out the data into 4 smaller groupings.

In the towns of Manchester and Dorset there were 75 transactions in 2010, up slightly from the 71 sales in 2009 (most of this activity was in Manchester with only 14 sales in Dorset last year). These two towns did not see the same increase in average sale price as the area as a whole did. Prices increased 5% last year from $427,884 to $450,016.

So if Manchester and Dorset didn’t see the price increase, who did? The answer is the mountain towns of Winhall, Peru, and Londonderry. There were 75 transactions last year, flat with the year before. Average prices jumped 44% from $306,387 in 2009 to $439,812 in 2010. (Prices had been down more sharply in this area in 2009 with a 33% decline compared to a 21% decline in Manchester and Dorset). Stratton Mountain is near Winhall and Bromley Mountain is in Peru. There is a lot of second home activity in the area, mainly from the NY tri state area. The large increase in prices in the mountain towns may be a sign that the economy is beginning to recover and that the second home market may be starting to revive.

The towns of Arlington and Sunderland saw a decline in the number of transactions from 32 in 2009 to 26 in 2010 but an increase in average sale price of 27% from $188,509 in 2009 to $238,958 in 2010.

The towns of Rupert, Pawlet and Danby saw an increase in the number of transactions from 13 in 2009 to 22 in 2010 and an increase in average sale price of 22% from $221,385 in 2009 to $270,868 in 2010.

Looking to what 2011 may bring we should first consider the inventory on the market. Currently there are 531 active listings on the market. This is a 2.7 year inventory based on the number of transactions in 2010. To see meaningful increases in the number of transactions we need the economy to strengthen and the unemployment rate to drop. This would create more primary home buyers in the area if employers increase hiring and would also give second home buyers the confidence they need to commit to such a significant purchase. The good news is that we may have seen the market bottom out in 2009. There is still plenty of inventory and room for negotiation in most prices, however buyers who have been sitting on the fence should consider acting soon before prices strengthen any further.

(For my readers who may be wondering why there have been no weekly market recaps lately, I have decided in 2011 to provide monthly and quarterly recaps instead. Anyone who would like more frequent updates, please contact me at david@battenkillre.com or 802-362-4067.)