Manchester Vermont Real Estate Blog

One of the primary focuses of this blog is statistical analysis of the trends in the local real estate market in and around Manchester, VT. Having just concluded the second quarter of 2010, with some delays and a little procrastination I give to you the mid year review.

Looking at the residential real estate market in the southern Vermont towns of Manchester, Dorset, Arlington, Sunderland, Winhall, Peru, Londonderry, Danby, Rupert and Pawlet for the 12 month period of July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010 we find that 216 properties sold with an average sales price of $350,000 and a median sales price of $250,000.

The numbers for the prior 12 month period of July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 show 164 properties sold with an average sales price of $394,000 and a median sales price of $299,000.

Comparing the two years we find that the average sale price declined by 11% while the median sale price declined by 16%. On the bright side, the transaction volume increased by 32% as buyers have begun to reenter the market.

It is also worth comparing the latest 12 month period to the results for the 2009 calendar year. My previous year end report showed that the average sale price had been $326,000 and the median sale price had been $231,000. The numbers reported above for the 12 months ended June 30, 2010 show both of these numbers have increased. The average sale price has gained 7.4% and the median sale price has gained 8.2%. This trend hopefully indicates that prices bottomed out sometime in 2009 and are slowly beginning to recover.

Turning our attention to the first half of 2010 we see that 87 properties have sold in the area. The average sale price of these 87 properties is $370,500 and the median price is $257,500, both above the trailing 12 month figures. This is yet another sign that prices are strengthening.

The local market won’t truly recover until transaction volumes return to levels that we saw in the early and middle years of the past decade (in the 270s in ’06 and ’07, in the 360 to 380 range from ’02 to ’05). So far this year we have seen 98 transactions as of July 26, 2010 (11 additional sales since July 1) with another 36 properties currently under contract. We will need to have another 91 properties go under contract and close between now and the end of the year in order to reach 225 transactions for the year. Given how quiet the market activity has been lately it would seem unreasonable to expect anything more than this for the remainder of the year, and even 225 may be a stretch.

The last piece of the equation in measuring the health of the local market is the current inventory of properties for sale. As of July 26^th there are currently 606 properties available on the market. Based on the 216 properties sold over the trailing 12 months we come up with a 2.8 year supply of properties based on current demand.

Until the number of buyers increases and the supply of properties decreases any price gains we have experienced will be on shaky ground and the positive trend noted earlier could quickly reverse itself again. Let’s hope the exceptionally low interest rates currently being offered by the banks (30 year fixed with zero points persistently below 5%) will draw additional buyers back into the market. If so we may be looking back in a couple of years at 2009 as the bottom of the market and 2010 as the first tentative steps towards recovery.

It was another slow week in the market. The rate at which new listings are coming on the market seems to have slowed, at least temporarily. We had been running at about 20 new listings each week. The past couple of weeks it has slowed to about 10 per week. This reduced rate is still outpacing the number of properties going under contract.

The mid year report is almost complete. Check back later in the week to see how the market has performed over the first 6 months of 2010.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 11 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $157,500 to $1,375,000.

Price Reductions – 9 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 8.8%.

Under Contract – 4 properties went under contract last week, 3 between $250,000 - $500,000, and 1 between $500,000 - $750,000.

Sold – 6 properties closed last week: one sold for $95,000 which was 97% of asking price, one sold for $155,000 which was 86% of asking price, one sold for $180,000 which was 90% of asking price, one sold for $270,000 which was 90% of asking price, one sold for $550,000 which was 92% of asking price and one sold for $563,000 which was 94% of asking price.

This Saturday, July 17^th is the annual Susan G. Komen VT/NH Race for the Cure at Hildene Meadows in Manchester, VT. This is a fun family event that annually raises hundreds of thousands of dollars for research and treatment in the battle against breast cancer. Here are some interesting and important facts about the event.

Haven’t been to the event before? There is much to like.

• There is the beautiful spot….it is located in a gorgeous setting at the Hildene Polo Grounds (Robert Todd Lincoln’s homestead)
• There are thousands of people who gather with the same goal in mind…eliminate Breast Cancer
• There is a 5K run for men and women
• There is a 5 K walk for all. Race walkers lead the way followed by folks of all ages and sizes…infants to men and women in their 90’s
• There is a kids fun run
• There is a raffle with great prizes and a silent auction
• There is good food
• There is a tent with many interesting booths
• There is an atmosphere that is really lively. It is very moving to see the number of people wearing pink t-shirts…an honor given to the survivors. It is humbling to think about what they have been through, and to see them on the other side of their treatment.

What is Komen all about?

• It is about eliminating Breast Cancer by supporting research
• It is about making sure that those with Breast Cancer receive proper treatment
• It is about ensuring that proper screening is done for early detection
• It is about education

Did you know?

• That 80% of the money raised at this event stays here in Vermont and New Hampshire
• That 20% of the money goes to Komen for research
• That the survival rate has increased from 74% to 98% since 1982
• That 95% of all cases occur in women 40 or older
• That 80% of those diagnosed have no known risk factors
• That since 1992, over 5 million dollars has been received locally?

If you would like to learn more about how you can participate or make a donation please visit www.vtnhcure.org or call us at 802-362-4067.

The post holiday week was a slow one. The little activity we are seeing is at the lower end of the market as evidenced by the properties that closed and went under contract last week.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 9 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $179,000 to $1,295,000.

Price Reductions – 13 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 8.2%.

Under Contract – 1 property went under contract last week, it is listed under $250,000.

Sold – 3 properties closed last week: one sold for $66,500 which was 100% of asking price, one sold for $130,000 which was 93% of asking price and one sold for $170,000 which was 87% of asking price.

The market perked up a little last week with 10 properties going under contract. We are in the midst of the heat wave that is gripping the northeast this week. It will be interesting to see what it does for activity, whether everyone will lay low or whether people would prefer to get out of the house and drive around in their air conditioned cars looking at some of the good deals we have on the market these days.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 18 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $184,000 to $1,600,000.

Price Reductions – 17 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 7.4%.

Under Contract – 10 properties went under contract last week, 5 under $250,000, 4 between $250,000 - $500,000, and 1 between $500,000 - $750,000.

Sold – 2 properties closed last week: one sold for $90,000 which was 75% of asking price, and one sold for $404,000 which was 86% of asking price.

It’s confirmed, the market is firmly back in the doldrums after a brief flurry of activity at the beginning of the month. We have arrived at the end of the second quarter. Stay tuned next week for my mid year report. Have a happy and safe 4^th of July.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 12 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $289,000 to $1,150,000.

Price Reductions – 17 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 5.6%.

Under Contract – 3 properties went under contract last week, 1 under $250,000, 1 between $250,000 - $500,000, and 1 between $500,000 - $750,000.

Sold – 3 properties closed last week: one sold for $156,000 which was 98% of asking price, one sold for $236,000 which was 93% of asking price, and one sold for $370,000 which was 93% of asking price.

Well I may have spoken too soon last week when I reported that the previous 2 weeks had been the strongest in months and hoped that it was the start of a pick up in the market. The past week was very slow with only 2 properties going under contract. This is the type of market we have been experiencing for the past couple of years. Every now and then we will see a flurry of activity that we hope is the start of something only to see it fizzle out again.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 22 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $85,000 to $2,225,000.

Price Reductions – 13 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 8.8%.

Under Contract – 2 properties went under contract last week, 1 under $250,000, and 1 between $250,000 - $500,000.

Sold – 3 properties closed last week: one sold for $119,000 which was 100% of asking price, one sold for $381,000 which was 95% of asking price, and one sold for $381,750 which was 96% of asking price.

It looks like the activity level is beginning to pick up as we start heading into summer. Over the past two weeks 19 properties have gone under contract compared to 6 properties for the preceding two week period. This is the best 2 weeks the market has had over the past three months. Hopefully this is the beginning of an improving trend for the summer and beyond.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 19 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $224,683 to $999,999.

Price Reductions – 21 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 8.7%.

Under Contract – 11 properties went under contract last week, 5 under $250,000, and 6 between $250,000 - $500,000.

Sold – 5 properties closed last week: one sold for $218,000 which was 82% of asking price, one sold for $253,000 which was 85% of asking price, one sold for $457,500 which was 66% of asking price, one sold for $475,000 which was 90% of asking price and one sold for $1,215,000 which was 94% of asking price.

Maybe someone out there is listening to me. Actually, what I have to report this week must be a coincidence but it is a step in the right direction. Last week I reported that too many of the new listings were over a million dollars even though most of the action is at the lower end of the market. This week of the 21 new listings on the market, 9 are under $250,000, 11 are between $250,000 - $500,000, and the remaining listing is at $685,000. There are still too many new listings being added to the market compared to demand but at least for this week they are in the right price range for where the buyers are.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 21 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $99,000 to $685,000.

Price Reductions – 11 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 7.4%.

Under Contract – 8 properties went under contract last week, 3 under $250,000, 3 between $250,000 - $500,000, and 2 between $500,000 - $750,000.

Sold – 3 properties closed last week: one sold for $181,000 which was 91% of asking price, one sold for $215,000 which was 86% of asking price, and one sold for $350,000 which was 97% of asking price.

Over the past week 26 new properties came on the market. Of these properties, 6 are listed for over $1 million and 2 more are just under $1 million. That represents 31% of the properties listed for the week. It is clear that the number of properties selling for more than $1 million is nowhere near 31% of the total transactions. This made me wonder where the action has been in terms of price range and whether we have the appropriate distribution of available properties in terms of price compared to what is selling.

Year to date 75 properties have sold. They breakdown in the following price ranges:

Under $250,000 – 37 properties sold or 49% of the total sales

$250,000 - $500,000 – 21 properties sold or 28% of the total sales

$500,000 - $750,000 – 9 properties sold or 12% of the total sales

$750,000 - $1 million -5 properties sold or 7% of the total sales

Over $1 million – 3 properties sold or 4% of the total sales

How does this compare to the distribution of properties currently listed for sale (573 total)

Under $250,000 – 160 properties for sale or 30% of the total available

$250,000 - $500,000 – 223 properties for sale or 39% of the total available

$500,000 - $750,000 – 79 properties for sale or 14% of the total available

$750,000 - $1 million -48 properties for sale or 8% of the total available

Over $1 million – 63 properties for sale or 11% of the total available

It is evident that the current inventory does not match up with the current demand. The number of lower end properties available is under represented while the number of higher end properties available exceeds the current demand. Owners of more modest properties who are considering selling should feel confident that their property could see a lot of action once on the market. Owners of larger homes and estates should be concerned that they would be venturing into an already crowded space where they would be competing for a limited number of buyers.

On to the weekly recap:

New Listings – 26 new properties came on the market last week ranging in price from $82,900 to $2.9 million.

Price Reductions – 17 properties were reduced in price with an average price reduction of 8.7%.

Under Contract – 3 properties went under contract last week, 2 under $250,000 and 1 between $500,000 - $750,000.

Sold – 6 properties closed last week: one sold for $94,600 which was 95% of asking price, one sold for $175,000 which was 90% of asking price, one sold for $198,000 which was 94% of asking price, one sold for $210,000 which was 92% of asking price, one sold for $234,000 which was 94% of asking price and one sold for $680,000 which was 91% of asking price.